H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
FEPS
–
F ounda ti o n
f o r
E ur o pean
Pr ogressi v e
Studi es
R u e
M o n toy er
40
–
1000
B russels,
Bel gi um T:
+ 32
2
234
69
00
Emai l:
inf o@f eps-eur o pe.eu
W ebsi te:
h ttps://www .f eps-eur o pe.eu
The
Founda tion
for
European
Progressi ve
Studies
(FEPS)
is
the
think
tank
o f
the socia l
democra ti c
poli ti ca l
fami l y
a t
EU
l ev el.
Our
missi o n
is
to
dev el o p
inno va ti v e resear ch,
poli cy
ad vi ce,
training
and
deba tes
to
inspire
and
inf o rm
pr ogressi v e poli ti cs
and
poli ci es
acr oss
E ur o pe.
W e
o pera te
as
h u b
f o r
thinking
to
faci li tate
the emergence
o f
pr ogressi v e
answers
to
the
cha ll enges
tha t
E ur o pe
faces
toda y .
FEPS w o r ks
in
cl ose
partnershi p
wi th
i ts
members
and
partners,
f o rging
co nnecti o ns and
boosting
coherence
amo ng
stak eholders
fr o m
the
w o rld
o f
poli ti cs, academia and
ci vi l
society
a t
l oca l,
regi o nal,
na ti o nal,
E ur o pean
and
g l oba l
l ev els.
P a per
pr od u ced
in
the
framew o r k
o f
the
FEPS- IAI
pr o ject
“F ostering
a
N ew
Securi ty A r chi tecture
in
the
Midd l e
East” ,
October
2020.
The
pr o ject
has
benefi ted
fr o m
the
financia l
su ppo rt
o f
the
E ur o pean
P arliamen t and
the
P oli cy
Planning
U ni t
o f
the
I ta lian
Ministry
o f
F o reign
A ffairs
and I n terna ti o na l
Coopera ti o n
pursuan t
to
art.
23-bis
o f
Presiden tia l
Decree
18/1967. The
vi ews
expressed
in
this
repo rt
are
sol el y
those
o f
the
a utho rs
and
d o
not necessari l y
refl ect
the
vi ews
o f
the
E ur o pean
P arliamen t
o r
the
I ta lian
Ministry
o f F o reign
A ffairs
and
I n terna ti o na l
Coopera ti o n.
Ministry
of
Fo reign
Affairs and
International
Cooperation
2
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi o na l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
by
Saeed
Kha ti bzadeh *
In t r o duc t i on
Over
the
past
decades,
the
Midd l e
Eastern
regi o n
has
faced
co nstan t
and
ra pid l y ev ol ving
cha ll enges,
beco ming
en tang l ed
in
esca la to ry
r heto ri c
and
acti o ns
tha t ha v e
l ed
to
a
n umber
o f
cri ti ca l
situa ti o ns.
I f
there
is
a
co nsensus
amo ng
experts abou t
the
curren t
sta te
o f
affairs
in
the
regi o n
i t
is
tha t
ti me
is
sensi ti v e,
co n text
is co m pl ex
and
u ncertai n ty
is
widespread.
I ndeed,
fr o m
the
P a l estinian
crisis
to
the
o nes
in
I raq,
S yria
and
Y emen,
the
regi o n is
deepl y
en tra pped
in
unsettl ed
dispu tes
and
co nfli cts,
refl ecting
in tra-regi o na l ri va lri es
and
f o reign
in terv en ti o n.
These
crises
are
dev el o ping
a t
an
accel era ted rate
and
the
spi ll o v ers
in to
nei g hbouring
states
and
regi o ns,
as
wi tnessed
recen tl y in
N o rth
A fri ca,
are
increasing l y
in ter co nnected
wi th
curren t
tensi o ns
and
ri va lri es between
extra-regi o na l
po wers.
A mo ng
a ll
the
ma jo r
co nfli cts
and
crises
in
the
Midd l e
East, the
o n l y
o ne
to
ha v e been
addressed
thr ou g h
di pl omacy
and
poli ti ca l
neg otia ti o ns
was
the
issu e
o f I ran ’ s
n u cl ear
pr ogramme,
w hi ch
was
u l tima tel y
addressed
thr ou g h
the
si gning
o f the
J o in t
Co m prehensi v e
Plan
o f
A cti o n
(J CPO A), better
kno wn
as
the
I ran
n u cl ear dea l.
The
US’ s
uni la tera l
wi thdra wa l
fr o m
the
J CPO A
in
Ma y
2018, f ol l o wed
by
i ts uni la tera l
and
un la wfu l
re-im posi ti o n
o f
extra terri toria l
sancti o ns
not
o n l y
o n
I ran bu t
a lso
o n
an y
f o reign
co m pan y
d o ing
business
wi th
I ran,
brou g h t
tensi o ns
back to
cen tre
stage
in
the
regi o n,
l eading
to
an
un precedented
esca la ti o n
tha t
l eft
the regi o n
o n
the
brink
o f
a
ma jo r
mi li tary
co nfr o n ta ti o n,
both
in
the
summer
o f
2019 and
in
Jan uary
2020,
after
US
presiden t
Do na ld
T rum p
o rdered
the
assassina ti o n o f
I ranian
to p
Genera l
Qasem
Sol eimani
in
I raq.
A s
new
and
old
dispu tes
and
crises
unf old
in
the
regi o n,
there
are
a lso
gr o wing ca l ls
and
demands
f o r
de-esca la ti o n.
This
w ou ld
serv e
not
o n l y
to
address
the
r oot
*
S aee d
K h a t i b z a de h
i s
V i c e - P r e s i de n t
f o r
R e s ea r c h
a t
t h e
I n s t i t u t e
f o r
Po l i t i c a l
a nd
I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t ud i e s
( I PIS ) .
.
P a p e r
p r o d u c e d
i n
t h e
f r a m e w o r k
o f
t h e
FE P S - I A I
p r o j e c t
“ F o s t e r i ng
a
N e w
S e c u r i t y
A r c h i t e c t u r e i n
t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
O c t o b e r
2 02 0 .
C o p y r i g h t
©
2 02 0
F o u nd a t i o n
f o r
E u r o p ea n
P r og r e ss i v e
S t u d i e s (FE P S )
a nd
I s t i t u t o
A ff a r i
I n t e r n a z i o n a l i
( I A I ) .
3
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
ca uses
o f
o ng o ing
dispu tes
bu t
a lso
to
bring
stabl e
peace
and
securi ty
to
a
regi o n w hi ch
can
tru l y
be
co nsidered
as
the
most
in terna ti o nalised
in
the
w o rld.
I ran
is
wel l
represen ted
in
man y
dev el o pmen ts
in
the
regi o n
and
theref o re
is
not o n l y
su bject
to
the
consequ ences
o f
the
curren t
situa ti o n
bu t
a lso
has
a
cen tra l r ol e.
Lik e
an y
other
sta te,
I ran
has
i ts
o wn
in terests,
poli ci es,
stra tegi es
and
threa t per cepti o ns.
F r o m
T ehran ’ s
po in t
o f
vi ew ,
the
curren t
situa ti o n
is
the
resu l t
o f diff eren t
in ter co nnected
facto rs,
amo ng
them
the
rea li ty
tha t
a lmost
a ll
previ ous pr o jects,
poli ci es
and
a ttem pts
to
bring
securi ty ,
peace
and
stabi li ty
to
the
regi o n ha v e
fai l ed.
They
ha v e
not
been
successfu l
main l y
beca use
they
ha v e
ex cl uded ma jo r
regi o na l
po wers,
parti cu larl y
I ran.
M o reo v er,
they
ha v e
not
been
ho megr o wn plans,
genera ll y
being
im posed
by
ou tsiders
pursuing
their
o wn
specifi c
in terests wi th
li ttl e
considera ti o n
f o r
the
rea li ti es
in
the
regi o n
and
th us
lacking
in
basi c
and m u tua ll y
endo rsed
princi pl es
and
assurances.
Based
o n
these
past
experi ences,
i t
is
a pparen t
tha t
o n l y
incl usiv e
and
coo pera ti v e framew o r ks
can
su cceed. 1
The
regi o n
needs
a
rea listi c
securi ty
framew o r k
tha t mirr o rs
the
new
power
rela ti o ns
in
the
regi o n
and
is
not
based
o n
old
parameters. A s
per cei v ed
in
I ran,
there
is
an
absol u te
need
f o r
su ch
a
co m prehensi v e
regi o na l package
f o r
coo pera ti o n,
w hi ch
is
refl ected
in
I ran ’ s
pr o posa l
f o r
a
H o rm uz Co mm uni ty
embedded
in
the
H o rm uz
P eace
Endea v our
(H O PE)
ini tia ti v e.
The
f ol l o wing
secti o ns
wi ll
ana l yse
I ran ’ s
H O PE
ini tia ti v e,
ou tlining
i ts
diff erences fr o m
previ ous
eff o rts.
A ddi ti o na ll y ,
the
ana l ysis
wi ll
address
a
n umber
o f
qu esti o ns, incl uding
w h y
a ll
previ ous
regi o na l
poli ci es
and
pr o posa ls
ha v e
fai l ed,
w hether there
are
viabl e
wa ys
ou t
o f
this
regi o na l
co n undrum,
and
fina ll y ,
w ha t
princi pl es and
cri teria
cou ld
inf o rm
a
w o r kabl e
framew o r k
f o r
regi o na l
securi ty .
1. U nderstanding
the
cha ll enges:
I ran ’ s
per cepti o n
o f
the
r oot ca use
o f
regi o na l
insecuri ty
A s
seen
fr o m
I ran,
regi o na l
cha ll enges
can
be
ca teg o rised
as
stru ctura l
v ersus situa ti o nal,
as
wel l
as
cha ll enges
tha t
arise
fr o m
inside
v ersus
ou tside
the
regi o n, wi th
both
being
in ter connected.
The
regi o n
is
stru ctura ll y
in v ol v ed
in
dai l y vi ol ence
to
the
exten t
o f
being
in
a
sta te
o f
permanen t
war.
A s
a
resu l t,
coun tri es o f
the
regi o n
are
en tra pped
in
diff eren t
stru ctura l
defi ci enci es
and
weaknesses, and
consequen tl y
their
supposed l y
o rdinary
in teracti o ns
wi th
each
other,
w hether poli ti ca l,
eco no mi c
o r
peo pl e-to-peo pl e
ex changes,
ha v e
beco me
securi tised.
This situa ti o n
is
v ery
far
fr o m
w ha t
cou ld
be
co nsidered
no rma l
in teracti o ns
in
other regi o ns,
w here
ev en
if
there
are
si gnifi can t
fi elds
o f
di v ergence,
coun tri es
can manage
their
diff erences
and
posi ti o ns
thr ou g h
established
poli ti ca l,
bi la tera l
o r
1
S ee
f o r
i n s t a n c e ,
A nd r ea
D e ss i ,
“ I n c l u s i v i t y
a nd
C oo p e r a t i v e
S e c u r i t y
o v e r
C o n t a i n m e n t
a nd E x c l u s i v i t y :
G u i de l i n e s
f o r
E U
Po l i c y
i n
t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
i n
E U R E N
B r i efs ,
N o .
1 3
( J a n u a r y
2 02 0 ) , h tt p : // www . e u - r u s si a - e xp e r t n e t w o r k . e u / en / a n a l y t i c s / e u r en - b r i ef - 1 3 .
4
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
regi o na l
mechanisms,
in
an
eff ectiv e
and
functi o na l
wa y
to
k eep
them
ou t
o f
the rea lm
o f
co nfr o n ta ti o n.
The
co ncept
o f
“understanding”
is
cru cia l
in
explaining
the
o ri gins
o f
the
curren t situa ti o n. 2
A lmost
ev ery
co nfli ct
has
started
wi th
assum pti o ns,
by
both
inside
and ou tside
pla y ers,
w hi ch
ha v e
o ften
turned
in to
self-fu lfi l ling
pr o pheci es.
These inaccura te
assum pti o ns
ha v e
u l tima tel y
l ed
to
poo r
concepts
and
misl eading ana l yses
co ncerning
surr ounding
cir cumstances.
The
na tura l
consequ ence
has been
err o neous
reco mmenda ti o ns
and
destru cti v e
poli ci es,
and
a
regi o n
defined by
war
and
co nfli ct
o v er
the
course
o f
the
past
decades,
incl uding
the
I raq– I ran
war, the
US
wars
against
I raq
and
A fg hanistan,
the
ca tastro phi c
and
tragi c
situa ti o ns
in S yria
and
Y emen,
and
o f
course
the
m u l ti-la y ered
co nfr o n ta ti o n
between
vari ous pla y ers
wi th
US– I ran
tensi o ns
a t
their
co re.
These
misunderstandings
run
so
deep
tha t
so me
extra-regi o na l
po wers,
su ch
as
the US,
co nsider
this
regi o n
as
a
sphere
o f
infl u ence
and
hegemo n y
and
cannot
depart fr o m
their
past
poli ci es. 3
Ul tima tel y ,
su ch
misunderstandings
ha v e
crea ted
vast securi ty
impli ca ti o ns
f o r
the
regi o n.
A
first
impli ca ti o n
has
been
mismanagemen t o f
the
regi o n ’ s
issu es
w hi ch
i tself
has
ca used
a
sense
o f
susta i nabl e
u ncertai n ty amo ng
the
na ti o ns
and
go vernmen ts
o f
the
regi o n. 4
Seco nd l y ,
grea t
po wers
ha v e tended
to
a ppr oach
the
regi o n
in
a
red u cti o n ist
manner.
The
best
exam pl e
is
in
the ana l yses
tha t
red u ce
tensi o n
in
the
regi o n
to
per cei v ed
I ran–Sa udi
ri va lri es
and f o rget
to
recognise
the
deep
in terna l
rifts
amo ng
A rab
states
within
and
bey o nd the
A rabian
P eninsu la. 5
F urthermo re,
the
co m pl ex
and
m u l tidimensi o na l
na ture o f
the
regi o n ’ s
cha ll enges
has
been
o v erl oo k ed.
This
is
mirr o red,
f o r
exam pl e, in
a ll
those
o v ersim plifi ed
ana l yses
tha t
trace
co nfli cts
in
the
regi o n
to
so-ca ll ed histo ri ca l
S unni–Shia
di visi o ns
o r
M uslim
B r other hood– W ahhabi
diff erences, trying
to
explain
ev erything
fr o m
I raq
to
A fg hanistan,
Qa tar
and
Li bya
thr ou g h reli gi ous
o r
sectarian
l enses.
The
di choto m y
o f
i d eas
v ersus
rea l i ti es
shou ld
a lso
be
tak en
in to
accoun t
to understand
the
curren t
sta te
o f
affairs.
This
h u ge
ga p
between
idea
and
rea li ty explains
w h y
a lmost
a ll
mega
plans
f o r
the
regi o n
ha v e
fai l ed
d uring
the
past
f ew decades.
There
are
f our
pr obl ems
tha t
can,
in
part,
explain
w h y
the
regi o n
is
in chaos:
• Cogn i ti ve
p robl em :
This
main l y
en tai ls
the
zer o-sum
men ta li ty
and
the
poli cy o f
ex cl usi o n
pursu ed
by
ma jo r
regi o na l
as
wel l
as
extra-regi o na l
po wers.
This
2
S e b a s t i a n
S u nd a y
G r è v e ,
“ T h e
I m p o r t a n c e
o f
U nde r s t a nd i ng
E ac h
O t h e r
i n
P h i l o s o p h y ” ,
i n
P h i l o s o p hy ,
V o l .
9 0 ,
N o .
2
( A p r i l
2 0 1 5 ) ,
p .
2 1 3 - 2 3 9 .
3
J a m e s
B a rr ,
“ H ow
a
F o r go tt e n
R i v a l r y
B e t w ee n
S u p e r pow e r s
H e l p e d
S h a p e
t h e
M o de r n
M i d dl e E a s t ” ,
i n
T im e ,
1 2
S e p t e mb e r
2 0 1 8 ,
h tt p s : // t im e. c o m / 5 3 9 3 0 23 .
4
K a r e l
Č e r n ý,
I ns t a b i l i t y
i n
t h e
M i dd l e
Ea s t .
S t r u c t u r a l
C h a n g e s
a nd
U ne v en
M o d er n i s a t i o n
1 95 0 – 2 015 ,
P r a g ue ,
C h a r l e s
U n i v e r s i t y ,
K a r o l i n u m
P r e ss ,
2 0 1 7 .
5
S i m o n
T i s d a ll ,
“ W h y
I n s t i n c t
a nd
I de o l og y
T e ll
T r u m p
t o
G e t
O u t
o f
t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
i n
T he Gua r d i a n ,
11
J a n u a r y
2 02 0 ,
h tt p s : // www . t h e g u a r d i a n .c o m / p / d4 7 5f .
5
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
pr obl em
in
the
cogni ti v e
ma p
o f
decisi o n
mak ers
and
l eaders
has
been,
and
sti ll is,
the
r oot
ca use
o f
the
ma jo ri ty
o f
past
co nfr o n ta ti o ns,
unsettl ed
dispu tes
and unsu ccessfu l
a ttem pts
f o r
an
incl usiv e
regi o na l
arrangemen t. 6
This
is
a
men ta li ty acco rding
to
w hi ch
win-win
sol u ti o ns
are
not
co nsidered
an
o pti o n,
and
theref o re there
has
been
an
activ e
poli cy
o f
ex cl uding
the
“ other” .
S u b-regi o na l
bl ocks
and coa li ti o ns,
ev en
if
shaky
lik e
the
Gu lf
Coopera ti o n
Counci l
(GCC)
o r
ad-hoc
and o ppo rtunisti c
lik e
the
o nes
tha t
emerged
in
S yria,
A fg hanistan,
Y emen
and
Li bya, ha v e
been
established
to
o ppose
the
“ other” .
• Stru ctu ra l
m istrust
a nd
d i vergen t
co n texts :
This
pr obl em
is
v ery
m u ch in ter co nnected
wi th
the
cogni ti v e
pr obl em
and
is
deriv ed
fr o m,
and
added
to,
the lack
o f
regi o na l
dia l ogu e,
regi o na l
w o r king
rela ti o ns
and
regi o na l
cohesi o n.
A s su ch,
the
regi o n
is
facing
a
deep
pr obl em
o f
“ othering” . 7
This
has
l ed
to
antag o nisti c beha vi ours
and
end l ess
ri va lri es
between
regi o na l
pla y ers.
• Extra-regi o na l
pol i ti cs
o f
i n terests
a nd
i n terven ti o ns :
This
pr obl em
incl udes
grea t power
poli ti cs, the
explo i ta ti o n
o f
the
regi o n ’ s
energy
resour ces, bi l li o ns
o f
d ol lars’ w o rth
o f
arms
sa l es 8
to
the
regi o n
and
coun tl ess
wars
and
co nfli cts,
tha t
co mbine
to mak e
a
ba lance
o f
power
between
diff eren t
su b-regi o na l
bl ocs
diffi cu l t.
Beca use
o f this,
the
regi o n
has
been
held
hostage
to
the
power
poli ti cs
o f
ma jo r
extra-regi o na l f o r ces
and
their
direct
and
indirect
in terv en ti o ns. 9
• S u bsta n ti ve
d efi cienci es
o f
regi o na l
pla ns
a nd
p ro posals :
A
co mbina ti o n
o f
the three
pr obl ems
ou tlined
abo v e
has
resu l ted
in
the
fai l ure
o f
past
pr o posed
plans
f o r regi o na l
arrangemen ts.
S u ch
plans
ha v e
fai l ed
primari l y
beca use
they
ha v e
rarel y refl ected
the
rea li ti es
o f
the
regi o n,
ha v e
not
been
incl usiv e
o r
co m prehensi v e and
ha v e
lack ed
the
basi c
princi pl es
needed
to
address
the
issu es
and
co ncerns o f
stak eholders,
mostl y
refl ecting
the
objectiv es
and
in terests
o f
externa l
grea t po wers.
These
facto rs
ha v e
go ne
hand
in
hand
wi th
mo re
systemi c
rea li ti es
su ch
as weak
o r
fai l ed
states
tra pped
in
iden ti ty
and
l egi timacy
crises,
a ll
resu l ting
in stru ctura l
chaos
in
W est
A sia. 10
This
stru ctura l
chaos
has
been
the
resu l t
o f
vari ous in ter co nnected
issu es
o n
the
gr ound,
incl uding
the
o ng o ing
I sraeli- P a l estinian
6
M i c h ae l
J .
S h a p i r o
a nd
G .
M a tt h e w
B o n h a m ,
“ C og n i t i v e
P r o c e ss
a nd
F o r e i g n
Po l i c y
D e c i s i o n - M a k i ng ” ,
i n
I n te r n a t i o n a l
S t u d i e s
Q u ar te r ly ,
V o l .
1 7 ,
N o .
2
( J u n e
1 9 7 3 ) ,
p .
1 4 7 - 1 7 4 .
7
T i m u r
K u r a n ,
“ T h e
R oo t s
o f
M i d dl e
E a s t
M i s t r u s t ” ,
i n
P r o j e c t
S y nd i c a t e ,
8
J u l y
2 0 1 6 ,
h tt p s : // p r o s y n . o r g / yA A k C R h .
8
S t o c k h o l m
I n t e r n a t i o n a l
P e ac e
R e s ea r c h
I n s t i t u t e
( SI PR I ) ,
G l o b a l
A r ms
T r ad e :
U S A
I n c r e a s e s D o m i n a n c e ;
A r ms
F l o w s
t o
t h e
M i dd l e
Ea s t
S u r g e ,
S a y s
S I PR I ,
11
M a r c h
2 0 1 9 ,
h tt p s : // www . s ip r i . o r g / n o d e /4 77 0 .
9
Y u q i n
L i u ,
“ O n
t h e
G r ea t
Pow e r
I n t e r v e n t i o n
i n
t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t
U p h ea v a l
a nd
Po l i t i c a l
T r e nd
i n
t h e M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
i n
J ou r n a l
o f
M i dd l e
Ea s t er n
a nd
I s l a m i c
S t u d i e s
( i n
A s i a ) ,
V o l .
7 ,
N o .
2
( 2 0 1 3 ) ,
p .
1 - 3 4 , h tt p s :/ / d o i . o r g /1 0 . 1 0 8 0 /1 9 3 7 0 6 7 9 . 2 0 1 3 . 1 2 0 2 3 22 1 ;
F r e d
H .
L a w s o n ,
“ R e t h i n k i ng
U . S .
I n t e r v e n t i o n
i n t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
i n
D ip l o m a t i c
H i s to r y ,
V o l .
2 3 ,
N o .
2
( S p r i ng
1 999 ) ,
p .
3 8 5 - 3 89 .
10
N i c k
D a n f o r t h ,
“ F o u r
M a p s
t h a t
E xp l a i n
t h e
C h ao s
o f
t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
i n
T h e
W a s h i n g t o n
P o s t ,
1 7 O c t o b e r
2 0 1 6 ,
h tt p : // w a p o . st / 2 d kN z J P .
6
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
co nfli ct
and
the
large-sca l e
h uman
tragedi es
tha t
are
sti ll
unf olding
in
S yria
and Y emen;
the
no rma lisa ti o n
o f
vi ol ence
and
war
in
the
regi o n
thr ou g h
the
co nstan t use
o f
nak ed
f o r ce
–
parti cu larl y
after
the
US
in vasi o ns
o f
I raq
and
A fg hanistan;
the barbari c
bru ta li ty
o f
terr o rist
gr ou ps
su ch
as
the
so-ca ll ed
I slami c
Sta te
in
I raq
and S yria
(ISIS); and
the
mi li tarisa ti o n
and
securi tisa ti o n
o f
the
regi o n
wi th
h undreds o f
bi l li o ns
o f
d ol lars’
w o rth
o f
mi li tary
equi pmen t
being
poured
in to
the
Midd l e East by
vari ous
acto rs. 11
F r o m
T ehran ’ s
po in t
o f
vi ew ,
fundamen ta l
changes
need
to
be
ad opted
o n
both cogni ti v e
as
wel l
as
practi ca l
l ev els
in
o rder
to
ad vance
new
regi o na l
mechanisms f o r
coo pera ti o n.
Tw o
packages
w hi ch
refl ect
su ch
cogni ti v e
and
poli cy
ingredi en ts, and
can
be
exam pl es
o f
bl u eprin ts
f o r
a
br oader
regi o na l
framew o r k,
incl ude
the J CPO A,
co mmo n l y
kno wn
as
the
I ran
n u cl ear
dea l,
and
I ran ’ s
pr o posed
H O PE ini tia ti v e,
w hi ch
i tself
is
based
o n
this
understanding
tha t
crea ting
and
establishing a
regi o na l
arrangemen t
in
I ran ’ s
immedia te
nei g hbour hood
is
a
first
necessary step
to wards
a
br oader
regi o na l
ar chi tecture
f o r
the
MEN A
regi o n.
2. I ran ’ s
f o reign
poli cy:
F r o m
idea
to
practi ce
I t
was
just
a
f ew
mo n ths
after
the
1979
I slami c
R ev ol u ti o n
in
I ran
tha t,
o n
22 September
1980,
I raqi
Presiden t,
Saddam
H ussein,
wi th
su ppo rt
o f
both
the
US and
the
So vi et
U ni o n,
started
a
bl ood y
ei g h t-y ear
war
against
I ran,
pr o mising
to co nqu er
T ehran
in
o n l y
three
da ys.
This
war
was
im posed
o n
I ran
just
tw o
mo n ths after
a
fai l ed
mi li tary
coup
(N o jeh
Cou p) 12
was
uncov ered
in
J u l y
1980
and
fi v e mo n ths
after
a
fai l ed
mi li tary
o pera ti o n
by
the
US,
o n
25
A pri l
1980,
to
free
US di pl o ma ts
held
in
the
US
Embassy
in
T ehran
by
rev ol u ti o nary
studen ts.
These dev el o pmen ts
were
pi v ota l
in
sha ping
the
threa t
per cepti o ns
o f
the
y oung
I slami c R epu bli c,
and
man y
sti ll
exist
in
the
mind
o f
I ranian
decisi o n
mak ers.
S ince
the
rev ol u ti o n,
I ran
has
co nsisten tl y
rejected
the
use
o f
f o r ce
against
an y coun try
o r
go vernmen t
in
the
regi o n,
a
poli cy
tha t
has
r oots
in
both
the
“idea”
o f the
rev ol u ti o n,
as
a
rejecti o n
o f
a ll
f o rms
o f
d o minance,
as
wel l
as
the
rea l
threa ts the
I slami c
R epu bli c
faced
d uring
i ts
earl y
da ys
d u e
to
the
antag o nisti c
poli ces pursu ed
by
ma jo r
po wers.
This
rejecti o n
o f
the
use
o f
f o r ce
is
refl ected
in
I ran ’ s o pposi ti o n
to
Saddam
H ussein ’ s
in vasi o n
o f
K u wai t,
US
in terv en ti o ns
in
both I raq
and
A fg hanistan
(ev en
thou g h
W ashingto n
remo v ed
tw o
im po rtan t
an ti- I ran
el emen ts), Sa udi
A rabia ’ s
war
in
Y emen
and
ev en
Sa udi
a ttem pts
to
f o r cefu ll y change
Qa tari
l eadershi p
thr ou g h
i ts
bl ockade.
I ran
has
a lso
been
co nsisten t
in
i ts
11
P i e t e r
D .
W e z e m a n ,
“ S a u d i
A r a b i a ,
A r m a m e n t s
a nd
C o n fl i c t
i n
t h e
M i d dl e
E a s t ” ,
i n
S I PR I B a c k g r ou n d e r s ,
1 4
D e c e mb e r
2 0 1 8 ,
h tt p s : // www . s ip r i . o r g / n o d e / 47 11 .
12
T h i s
c o u p
h a s
b ee n
c o n s i de r e d
a s
t h e
fi r s t
a nd
o n l y
a tt e m p t
b y
l o y a l i s t s
t o
t h e
S h a h
o f
I r a n ,
l e d b y
h i g h - r a n k i ng
e l e m e n t s
i n
t h e
A r m y
a nd
a ll e g e dly
s u pp o r t e d
b y
t h e
U S ,
t o
o v e r t h r ow
t h e
n e w l y e s t a b l i s h e d
I s l a m i c
R e p u b l i c .
T h e
c o u p
w a s
ea s i l y
de f ea t e d
b e f o r e
i t
e v e n
go t
s t a r t e d .
F o r
m o r e
de t a i l s s ee
“ D o c u m e n t s
P r o v e
U S
I n v o l v e m e n t
i n
1 98 0
N o j e h
C o u p
A tt e m p t
i n
I r a n ” ,
i n
Fa r s
N e w s
A g en c y ,
1 0 J u l y
2 017 ,
h tt p s : // e n . f a r s n e w s . i r / n e w s t e x t . a s px ? nn = 1 3 96 0 4 1 9 00 1 4 2 0 .
7
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
poli cy
o f
rejecting
regime
change
in
S yria
o r
elsew here
in
the
regi o n.
F o r
I ran,
ha ving
a
peacefu l
regi o n
in
w hi ch
poten tia l
antag o nists
are
eff ectiv el y deterred
is
o f
vi ta l
im po rtance.
This
is
w h y
I ran
has
a l wa ys
been
v ery
sensi ti v e and
a tten ti v e
to
dev el o pmen ts
in
i ts
immedia te
nei g hbour hood,
w hether
in
I raq, A fg hanistan
o r
the
br oader
su b-regi o ns
su ch
as
the
Levan t
o r
N ear
East.
A s
a coun try
tha t
has
experi enced
f our
decades
o f
A meri ca ’ s
sancti o ns
and
faces
an activ e
US
poli cy
tha t
aims
to
demonise
and
del egi timise
I ran,
securing
terri toria l in tegri ty
and
an
abi li ty
to
no rma lise
i ts
rela ti o ns
wi th
the
ou tside
w o rld
are
o f fundamen ta l
im po rtance.
A l thou g h
I ran ’ s
f o reign
poli cy
in
the
earl y
y ears
o f
the
I slami c
rev ol u ti o n
can
be framed
mostl y
as
a
reacti o n
to
the
poli ci es
pursu ed
by
regi o na l
and
extra-regi o na l po wers,
T ehran
soo n
noti ced
tha t
i t
has
no
o pti o n
bu t
to
add
a
mo re
pr oactiv e dimensi o n
to
i ts
f o reign
poli cy .
I ran ’ s
su ppo rt
f o r
the
so-ca ll ed
“axis
o f
resistance”
– fr o m
Lebano n
and
the
Levan t
to
I raq
and
Y emen
–
can
be
understood
both in
terms
o f
a
reacti o n
to
the
pressure
im posed
by
the
US
and
i ts
a l li es
as
wel l
a pr oactiv e
a ttem pt
by
I ran
to
push
back
against
extremist
f o r ces
su ch
as
Da ’ esh
(o r ISIS) and
the
US-l ed
axis
against
I ran.
2.1
I ra n ’ s
fo rei gn
pol i cy
u nd er
Presi d en t
R ou ha n i:
F ro m
JCPO A
to
H O PE
Presiden t
Hasan
R ouhani’ s
f o reign
poli cy ,
dev el o ped
and
arti cu la ted
by
his to p
di pl o ma t
F o reign
Minister
J a vad
Zarif,
can
be
explained
as
a
new
a ttem pt to
dev el o p
a
pr oactiv e
f o reign
poli cy
based
o n
a
shifting
discourse
aimed
a t reca pturing
the
co re
message
o f
the
1979
rev ol u ti o n:
“independence,
freed o m
and the
I slami c
R epu bli c” .
R ouhani
cam pai gned
f o r
the
presidency
based
o n
a
poli ti ca l and
eco no mi c
pla tf o rm
o f
“pruden t
modera ti o n ” ,
“ho pe”
and
ra ppr ochemen t
wi th the
in terna ti o na l
co mm uni ty .
A fter
a
hea vi l y
co n tested
presiden tia l
el ecti o n
in
J une
2013, R ouhani
w o n
a
decisi v e vi cto ry
and
ad opted
tw o
in ter co nnected
poli ti ca l
and
eco no mi c
stra tegi es.
The first,
as
the
to p
poli ti ca l
pri o ri ty ,
was
resol ving
the
dispu te
o v er
I ran ’ s
peacefu l n u cl ear
acti vi ti es
and
f ol l o wing
déten te
both
regi o na ll y
and
in terna ti o na ll y;
and the
seco nd
sou g h t
to
di versify
I ran ’ s
externa l
poli ti ca l,
cu l tura l
and
eco no mi c rela ti o ns.
A mo ng
ma jo r
threa ts
I ran
has
dea l t
wi th
in
the
course
o f
the
past
f our
decades,
the dispu te
o v er
i ts
n u cl ear
acti vi ti es
remains
the
most
si gnifi cant.
I n
fact,
by
using
the n u cl ear
fi l e,
the
US
eff ectiv el y
securi tised
in terna ti o na l
discourse
ar ound
I ran,
la ter im pl emen ting
the
harshest
in terna ti o na l
sancti o ns
ev er
devised
to
target
a
sing l e coun try .
UN
Securi ty
Counci l
R esol u ti o n
1929,
ad opted
o n
9
J une
2010
under A rti cl e
41
o f
Cha pter
VII
o f
the
UN
Charter,
w hi ch
im pl emented
the
in terna ti o na l sancti o ns
regime,
was
eff ectiv el y
in terpreted
in
I ran
as
a
basis
to
l egi timise
the hosti l e
acti o ns
o f
those
w ho
were
seeking
regime
change
in
I ran
fr o m
the
earl y da ys
o f
the
I slami c
R epu bli c.
8
IAI
P APER S
20
|
26
-
OCTO BER
2020
ISSN
2610-9603
|
ISBN
978-88-9368-147-6
©
2020
FEPS-IAI
H O PE
f o r
a
N ew
R egi ona l
Securi ty
A r chi tecture:
T o ward
a
H o rm uz
Co mm uni ty
Presiden t
R ouhani,
a
modera te
poli ti cian
wi th
detai l ed
kno wl edge
and
a
l o ng histo ry
o f
dea ling
wi th
I ran ’ s
n u cl ear
fi l e
as
the
chi ef
neg otia to r
wi th
the
E3
(F rance, German y
and
the
UK)
between
2003
to
2005,
came
to
o ffi ce
wi th
a
v ery
n uanced understanding
abou t
the
need
to
no rma lise
I ran ’ s
posi ti o n
in
the
in terna ti o na l system
and
to
neutra lise
those
ma jo r
threa ts.
F o r
this,
he
decided
to
disman tl e
the main
engine
used
by
the
US
and
i ts
a l li es
to
securi tise
I ran.
The
first
step
was
to sel ect
a
to p
in terna ti o na list
di pl o ma t
as
his
f o reign
minister
and
chi ef
neg otia to r. The
neg otia ti o ns
between
I ran
and
P5+1
(the
fi v e
permanen t
members
o f
the
UN Securi ty
Counci l
pl us
German y),
coo rdina ted
by
the
E ur o pean
U ni o n,
immedia tel y started
and
man y
r ounds
o f
ta lks
too k
place
in
Geneva,
V i enna
and
elsew here.
A n in terim
agreemen t
si gned
in
N o v ember
2013 1 3
u l tima tel y
l ed
to
the
landmar k
I ran n u cl ear
dea l,
o r
the
J CPO A,
o n
14
J u l y
2015.
This
agreemen t
cou ld
not
ha v e
been
achi ev ed
wi thou t
meaningfu l
and
pr o f ound cogni ti v e
as
wel l
as
practi ca l
changes
in
ma jo r
W estern
ca pi ta ls,
most
im po rtan tl y in
W ashingto n,
vis-à-vis
I ran.
By
aband o ning
i ts
insistence
o n
a
“zer o
enri chmen t poli cy”
in
I ran,
the
US
pr o vided
the
needed
space
f o r
a
win-win
co m pr o mise.
This
o pening
was
ho wev er
cl osed
by
the
T rum p
administra ti o n.
T rum p ’ s
f o reign poli cy
o ri en ta ti o n
and
beha vi our
to ward
the
Midd l e
East reca l ls
the
old
neo-co n a ppr oach,
and
represen ts
a
departure
fr o m
the
Obama
administra ti o n
w hi ch
had, to
so me
extent,
mo v ed
a wa y
fr o m
red u cti o nist
a ppr oaches
to
the
Midd l e
East, ev en to
the
po in t
o f
accepting
the
bi tter
rea li ty
tha t
W ashingto n ’ s
a l li es
are
not
necessary serving
US
in terests
in
the
regi o n.
The
J CPO A
was
a
uniqu e
mo men t
o f
m u tua l
recogni ti o n
between
I ran
and
the ma jo r
in terna ti o na l
po wers.
I ran
recognised
the
P5+1
as
a
sui tabl e
representa ti v e o f
the
m u l ti polar
o rder
to
mak e
a
dea l
wi th
o n
su ch
an
im po rtan t
issu e,
w hi l e
i ts coun terparts
recognised
not
o n l y
I ran ’ s
ri g h t
to
peacefu l
n u cl ear
pr ogramme
bu t a lso
the
I slami c
R epu bli c
as
a
partner.
The
J CPO A
was
successfu ll y
de-securi tising I ran.
I n
return,
I ran
accepted
un precedented
no n-pr olif era ti o n
standards
and a
ri gid
inspecti o n
regime,
o f
course
within
a
time-limi ted
framew o r k.
This
tw o- wa y
street
tha t
is
deli bera tel y
mapped
in
the
J CPO A,
and
is
embedded
in
the
UNSC R esol u ti o n
2231,
was
unanimousl y
ad opted
o n
29
Mar ch
2016. 14
F urther
to
the
abo ve-men ti oned
systemi c
aspect,
other
dimensi o ns
o f
I ran ’ s n u cl ear
dea l
ga v e
rise
to
ho pes
tha t
this
agreemen t
cou ld
be
a
departure
po in t
f o r
a mo re
incl usiv e
ra ppr ochemen t
between
I ran
and
i ts
nei g hbours.
F o reign
Minister Zarif
in
a
tweet
ca ll ed
the
dea l
a...